Columbian Government

The Colombian Government Announces is released unharmed to Ingrid Betancourt, 3 Americans and 11 military hostages of the FARC. This will boost to Uribe in his struggle with the Supreme Court (questioning him by the illegality of their choice or why 20% of their congressmen are linked to paramilitary activity) and to go towards a new election (with which he wants to extend its mandate which according to the Constitution should end in 2010). Also benefiting McCain (who went to Colombia) and strategy of anti-terrorism heavy-handed against Obama (who requests meet with Chavez and freeze the FTA with Bogota). The presidential ex-candidata Betancourt, kidnapped by the FARC in 2002, became an international symbol. Chavez initially wanted that FARC let go it so that it strengthen its policy of showing Uribe as a hard and encourage the guerrillas to legalize then get to the Government through the electoral (type Nicaragua or South Africa). After Uribe to release her without granting nothing to change, its image both internally and grow international and continental right will want to use this to launch a counteroffensive against the Governments and leftist parties in the region. What’s more, you can have some impact on American electoral career because Republicans will want to use it to keep in power showing that the best way to defeat terrorism is to invest more in intelligence and military actions. For McCain that should be the way to defeat in Iraq and hunt down Bin Laden.

As in the case of Sendero Luminoso in Peru a guerrilla that discredits for making unpopular armed actions ends up weakening itself left and trade unions and helping forces that want to consolidate a greater liberalization of the economy. The strategy of the FARC to negotiate its re-introduction or the freedom of hundreds of their prisoners suffer a severe setback. This may include new crisis moments in which changed from Chief for the first time. The defeats of the FARC have an impact within the left. While a sector will draw conclusion that individual and isolated violence conspires against his ideal move towards a mass uprising, the majority of Socialists seek to distance themselves from any violent measure for wanting to appear as a moderate able to be good Democrats. Uribe will want to convert the most popular President in the region and a symbol that the opponents of Chavez, Correa, Morales and Ortega used to undermine the advance of the pink tide in Latin America. Uribe victory, for example, want to be used by the Venezuelan opposition to beat Chavez in the Venezuelan regional elections or the Bolivian to go fencing to the Government (who had just lost the election of Chuquisaca and is crashing with Alan Garcia).


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