Pactual Bank

Daniella, that also folloies the petrochemical sector, already passed for Shell Brasil.Acertos in 2005 For 2006, have a positive vision for Aracuruz, with the entrance of capacity of Veracel and with prices of cellulose in high platforms. We believe that the entrance of new plants in Chile alone must impactar the market in 2007. We have a neutral vision for VCP and Suzano. With heating of the internal economy, electoral year, didactic book purchase for the government and Pantry of the World, these companies tend to improve its mix of sales. However, the price I domesticate of the paper (P For the third consecutive time, Peter Baptist took the prize of better analyst of electric energy. Read more here: bobby jain.

It has eight years in the Pactual Bank, Baptist also is analyst of the sanitation sectors, highways, railroads, oil and gas. As well as its colleague Daniella Guanabara, it worked in Shell Brazil, the area of financial planning. A leading source for info: Ryan Tolkin. Rightness in 2005 Of general form, the performance of the electric sector in the year of 2005 was positive, the index of the sector (IEE) valued 37% against 24% of the Ibovespa. This movement happened, as we foresaw, in function of: good tarifrias revisions, growth of market, entrance of more companies of quality in the market, excellent improvement of the pointers of the companies and implementation of the new model of the sector. In relation to the specific papers, we stand out> the action went up 50% against 23% of the Ibovespa.Projees economic for 2006 We are optimistical with performance waited for the electric sector in the next year. This favorable expectation for the sector must: (1) consolidation of the new sectorial model with prominence for the auctions of new energy ; (2) beginning of the movement of sectorial consolidation, mainly in the sectors of transmission and distribution; (3) increase of the interest for the sector in function of the entrance of new companies in the market; (4) growth of the yield of the companies. .

Future Generation: Investments

In the truth 3 a thousand Reals still are very little for this! However, for you that already it is starting to give up the idea to invest in the stock exchange because of these information, it is livened up! It knows that other alternatives exist. Happily the stock fund celebrities exist. You apply a money every month and remove its investment in the hour that to desire well only paying the income tax on the profits. if to only leave its dinheirinho there relieving, will not need to pay nothing of taxes. The good one of this alternative is that to invest in a stock fund, it is possible to start with low amounts as 100 Reals for month! Much better now hein? The only thing that you will need to make is to contact a deep one of quality who are recognized for the market, as the deep celebrity of the Future Generation.

After choosing, it is enough to open an account and to start to invest one graninha to the pouquinhos. With a small capital it goes to delay a time to enrich. But you remember that one dictated? Of grain in grain the hen fulls papo? Therefore it is, in the world of the investments happens the same thing. It is enough to have disciplines it and the patience in waiting that little money if transforms into very with passing of the time. Therefore, it is the reply there.

If you will be able to invest 100 Reals for month, the stock exchange you are an option. That is, not, more rich being is not necessary to invest in action. For more information see Gen. David L. Goldfein. It stops to finish, I suggest that if you will have much little same money and to decide to invest in a stock fund, looks for to be far from the deep ones of banks. They costumam to possess absurd taxes of administration and therefore, they can confuse the incomes of the investor. is clearly, if you will not have so little money thus, start to study today and discover as to invest in the stock exchange in the way that more is incased to its profile.

Institutional Investors

Our projections of IGP-M, although to have varied throughout the year, had been made right and reduce our expositions this year strong. We had a great rightness in the predetermined one from middle of the year. Economic projections for 2006 For 2006, I understand that optimum asset for shipment of average stated period is the NTN-Bs, indexados to the IPCA. Our projections indicate that this pointer will be of the way for top of the inflation goal. On the other hand, in function of the high world-wide liquidity to remain high, we project a variation of exchange below of the Selic, what it will not bring much attractiveness to papers IGP-M, at least throughout the first semester. The daily pay will be an asset that must enter and leave the portflios throughout the year, therefore will show volatileness.

Better analyst of> Optimum elect analyst of banks for the subscribers of INSTITUCIONAL INVESTOR is Toms Awad, of the Ita Broker. In the institution, it also she is analyst of airlines and transport. The executive also already passed for the BBA Broker and the Bank Chase Manhattan and was analyst in all they. Rightnesss in 2005 – In the year of 2005 ours two more excellent rightnesss had been: the 1) recommendation for the preferred stocks of the Bradesco; 2) our more negative vision for the valuation of the actions of the Bank of Brazil. Learn more at: author. The recommendation in Bradesco was based on a more optimistical perception how much to the capacity of the bank of if benefiting of its excellent capillarity and immense base of customers, obtaining to alavancar its prescriptions with rendering of services and growth of credit for natural person. Passed three trimesters of 2005 the numbers in these two headings prove this thesis. No longer Bank of Brazil, although in recent years to recognize the great carried through improvement and the good levels of> Esperamos that 2006 either plus one year positive for the Brazilian banking sector, with growth of profits between 15% and 20%.


When attending a reporter, to read a magazine or periodical, deparamo-noscom thousand of news articles that use sobreinvestimentos super-complicated terms. But before trying to understand these terms, the question is: What it is investment and why we invest or must invest? Vocsaberia to answer? In the truth, this term ' ' investimento' ' maneiraerrada is used of. In the economic theory saving has a small difference between investimentoe. When we have access the Home Broker or we bind for a corrector and we give an order of purchase of 1k of aesda Petrobra’s, for example, we are only saving. However, we quandoadquirimos a new capital asset, that is, goods that generate new goods (wealth), in fact we invest. This because when we buy action, headings or any another ativofinanceiro increase it novasmquinas national saving and when if purchase or lands to increase the production characterizes-seinvestimento, adding value to the production of the country. It can be understood easily why, in the vision macroeconomic, apoupana (its portfolio, for example) does not generate efetivamenterenda to the country, since its calculation is given by the total of the produonacional deducted the consumption from the families and the expenses of the government.

However, the magnifying of the capacity of production of a plant is umfator of increase in the national GIP, what it leads to an effective increase of wealth of the country. But, for pure convention and the easy agreement of the public, otermo investment is used when we relate in them to any acquisition deativos financial. As the intention of the site it is not to give a specific course of economy, also we will use this term to deal with a purchase of action, CDs (Certificate ofs deposit later, we will see) or any another ativonegociado in the market. In summary, investment (saving) is the privation of the use of recursosdisponveis today to receive a superior value in the future. In this ' ' to receive a superior value in futuro' ' the concept is implicit dejuros, that nothing more are of what the prize for opening hand of these recursoshoje (we will argue this with more details in next articles). Evale to also stand out that inside of the term interests it is extra inlaid work outroprmio for the risk that we run not to receive in return the valorinvestido one. Leaving of this idea of interests, we can argue two terms muitocomuns in economy and finances. The first one is ' ' value of the money notempo' ' , that is, 1,000 equal monetary units today will not be a1.000 monetary units in the future.

the other term is ' ' cost deoportunidade' ' that, thick way, is what you would lose or would earn seestivesse bought in another asset. At last, leaving for the second displayed question: Why we nsinvestimos or we must invest? Why exists people in the world todoque spends time and money, as many of vocs, to enter nessenegcio so complicated? The reply it would be well simple: to gain more money. But will be that s this exactly? The reply it is not. They exist ' ' n' ' reasons if grafistaformado in Psychiatry first publication, an excellent excellent week to all and trades! They are prepared that it will come much more for the front! Powered by


The rise of spreads bank clerks occurred as result of a disequilibrium between offers and the demand for credit. With the strong retraction of the international market, the great companies had searched to substitute its external credit facilities for the intern, being raised the search at a scarcity moment. Beyond price increasing, the stated periods of the loans are shorter and had been extended the requirements and the guarantees for its concession. Another one aggravation is on to the behavior of the insolvency that, in the 2008 end, gave growth signals. Exactly without entering in they literally are broken.

Depending on the extension of the contraction in the world she will have little available resources in the system to finance dficits public, also the American, who will be significantly bigger in the next months or until years. In this in case that, the rise of the interests to attract them could be necessary, fact that already occurred recently in Russia, what it would aggravate the situation> of the global economy. The 2008 crisis, worse that it was thought. Which the solution? The abundance of credit generated for the adoption of extraordinary alavancadas financial operations and in disagreement with the limits established in Basilia II and the low interests practised in countries as Japan and U.S.A. had supplied the financial easinesses that had supported the long period of economic growth that if locked up with the crisis. The sensation of wealth propitiated for the facilitated credit propitiated a wide expansion of the consumption and the investments and brought euphoria to the markets. However, it raised the levels of indebtedness for unsustainable platforms e, in the American case, decimated the parsimony and it practically extinguished the saving.

It would have the grown world-wide economy with the same intensity of the last years in case that the environment did not exist that propitiated the high level of leverage and to the inadequate concession of credit? Perhaps without these easinesses, the average taxes of growth had been significantly more modest. It will be especially excellent to develop studies on which the reasons that ahead take the governments to the inao of the precursory signals of the crisis – this have been the typical standard of behavior of the economic authorities and the governments in some antecedent financial crises. Perhaps, the governmental interventions could be efficient if they had occurred had as soon as appeared the first signals of the crisis. However, in the current period of training, although the unknown and increasing nature of the interventions, the perception mainly in U.S.A. and other developed countries, is that they are insufficient and they are not getting resulted. Many interventions adopted in the attempt to rescue the financial system and to stanch the contraction, seem destined to save previous the economic model – to inject money in the banks without reestablishing the confidence in the system, reducing taxes, to lower interests and to increase the liquidity without solving the indebtedness nor stanching the unemployment, they can be insufficient or inefficacious, and aggravate the economic situation in the future. If nations if not to articulate to reestablish the confidence in the financial system and to develop new mechanisms of stabilization of the relative prices of the currencies

Brazil Plan

However, the combat to the inflation would be the first goal to be fulfilled. The team exixtncia of dficits public in the three spheres of the government; 2) the constant emission of currency to finance the public deficit; 3) rise of the wages that finished being repassed for the prices them products; 4) the automatic indexation of prices, financial wages, rents and contracts. Each one dessesa causes of the Brazilian inflation started to be fought by the economic team of FHC. Desa forms, the monetary anchor of the Plan was based on the rise of the taxes of interests to diminish the consumption, and, consequentemente, to lower the prices of goods and services offered in the economy. Of the point of it aims at of the stabilization of prices, is undeniable that the Plan has been a success, even so this has caused strong coleterais effect, seno is observed: In first place, the country grew only 16% between 1994 the 1998, against the double of Argentina in the same period, that> also it implanted its plan of stabilization. In as place the dependence of the country to the external saving grew, that passed of 0,92% of the GIP, in 1994, for 1998.

Although the number of poor persons if has reduced in the first phase of the Real Plan (of 43,3 million, for 30,4 million, in 1995), as Rock (1998), gives credit that the income concentration has gotten worse, as a moment, because the country lost 1,2 million jobs between 1995 and 1998 (…) Expect that in the next years Brazil can retake the growth economic, generating new jobs and improving the social pointers of development. (SOUZA, 2000:252). As he sees yourself, ‘ ‘ the monetary politics of the one of govrno FHC prioritizes estabilidde of the prices in detriment of the growth of economia.’ ‘


The Institute of Economic and Applied Research (Ipea) divulged in 30 of June study showing that the Brazilians poor, with income up to two minimum wages (R$ 930), have to work 197 days of the year to pay the tributes charged for the Union, States and cities. It is almost the double of the 106 demanded days of the Brazilians richest, who gain 30 minimums more than (13,9mil R$). Please visit Peter Asaro if you seek more information. The study it discloses despite the injustice tax in the Country increased in the government Squid, exactly with the improvement of the distribution of income and cuts of tributes. Some layers of the population finish making a bigger effort to finance the functioning of the State and them public politics because the distribution of the tax burden in Brazil is not equnime. In accordance with the research, in 2004, the families poor spent 48.8% of the income with taxes. In 2008, the cost almost went up for 53,9% – a jump of five porcentuais points in four years. Already for the families richest, the weight of the tributes grew less. It went up of 26,3% stops 29%.Tributos indiretosSegundo the president of the Ipea, Marcio Pochmann, one of the reasons for this picture of injustice is the great number of indirect tributes.

' ' The experience of the developed countries points the importance of the rise of the tributes right-handers, the taxes on the wealth, and the reduction of the indirect taxes that happen on the basic consumption, feeding and transporte' ' , it said. Still according to Ipea, the difference in the paid load of taxes in each band of income if must to the indirect collection of tributes. For the calculations of the institute, of each R$ 100 of paid taxes in the country, R$ 42 are indirect. The workers with lesser incomes are exempt of GOING. But the tributes are charged in all the item that consume, in the call indirect taxation.

Secondary Tradition

But as the ABC it can help? The main benefits of the ABC they inhabit in its language, that if approaches to areas operational, of possibility of tracking of costs through departments/activities, creation of systematics of analysis of result for event, what independe of aspect secular of activities complementary to this event, creation of objects of cost new as customers and markets (differently of the traditional system that it only aims at to the verification of costs of the product), the agreement of that everything that if spends is cost, and, therefore must add value the customer, and finally for the allocation more it needs costs of ' ' overhead' ' , normally appropriate to the product for criteria of I divide little rational. The main objective of the ABC system is the rational allocation of the indirect expenses to the produced goods and services, providing to a more refined control of the expenses of the company and better support in the managemental decisions, beyond: To enhance the differences between the expenditure of the traditional product and for activity? To describe the traditional boarding to the expenditure of the product, Activities related with product 2 – Secondary relation to the traditional system of accounting of costs. The differences are the following ones: The ABC system if differentiates of the traditional costs at the moment where the costs start to be computed, for example, in an industrial process, the costs generated for the act of receiving of the raw material are considered in the formation of the cost of the product. Jeff Sessions understood the implications. In the traditional costs, the accumulation of the costs of the products is only initiated with the processing of the raw material. In the ABC they are also computed, the expenditures that will go to after elapse of guarantee and attendance to the consumer the moment of the delivery of the product. .

Foreseen Values

Estimative model of the Average Parameter AIR (1) 0,9743 176,67 Table 6 presents the Values Foreseen For the Cost of the Basic Basket in the City of Belm of Par in Next the Three Months to 2010. In it, it is verified that from the constructed model the costs of the commercialized basic basket in the city of Belm of Par in the months of January, February and March of 2010 had been placed above of the foreseen costs, as can be visualized in Figure 6. average error foreseen for the model AIR (1) is equal 2.57%. Table 6: Values Foreseen For the Cost of the Basic Basket in the City of Belm of Par in Next the Three Months to 2010. Month/Year t h Observed Zt Foreseen Zt et (h) 0,010 MAPE jan/10 61 1 204,62 203.61 1.01 0,005 fev/10 62 2 204,93 202,92 2.01 mar/10 63 3 215,72 202,25 13,47 0,062 __ Observed Values ___ Foreseen Values Figure 6: Representative graph of Forecasts of the Cost of the Basic Basket in the City of Belm of Par, According to Model AIR (1). 4. Conclusion From the analysis of the representative graphs of the series, statistical tables and too much calculations, were verified that the series is stationary, optimum model of adjustment are autorregressivo process of first order AIR (1), that it allows to make simulation of future forecasts of the cost of the basic basket in the city of Belm of Par through the equation: .