Foreseen Values
Estimative model of the Average Parameter AIR (1) 0,9743 176,67 Table 6 presents the Values Foreseen For the Cost of the Basic Basket in the City of Belm of Par in Next the Three Months to 2010. In it, it is verified that from the constructed model the costs of the commercialized basic basket in the city of Belm of Par in the months of January, February and March of 2010 had been placed above of the foreseen costs, as can be visualized in Figure 6. average error foreseen for the model AIR (1) is equal 2.57%. Table 6: Values Foreseen For the Cost of the Basic Basket in the City of Belm of Par in Next the Three Months to 2010. Month/Year t h Observed Zt Foreseen Zt et (h) 0,010 MAPE jan/10 61 1 204,62 203.61 1.01 0,005 fev/10 62 2 204,93 202,92 2.01 mar/10 63 3 215,72 202,25 13,47 0,062 __ Observed Values ___ Foreseen Values Figure 6: Representative graph of Forecasts of the Cost of the Basic Basket in the City of Belm of Par, According to Model AIR (1). 4. Conclusion From the analysis of the representative graphs of the series, statistical tables and too much calculations, were verified that the series is stationary, optimum model of adjustment are autorregressivo process of first order AIR (1), that it allows to make simulation of future forecasts of the cost of the basic basket in the city of Belm of Par through the equation: .
Tags: economy
