National Institute
Fausto Spotorno of Orlando Ferreres, was clear to warn that despite the appreciation of the Brazilian real and the devaluation of the Argentine peso, hardly it has changed the relative competitiveness: the real adjustment was very strong, in a country without inflation, so Argentina has not gained in competitiveness with Brazil. The problem is that despite the observed exchange rate devaluation in Argentina, inflation afflicting the country ends up by eliminating any improvement in the exchange rate competitiveness. Clear that this can not be seen through numbers from the National Institute of statistics and censuses (INDEC) just released the April retail inflation and that realizes an interannual variation of only 5.7 per cent. Any private estimate far exceeds the one made by the INDEC. According to Senator of Arizona, who has experience with these questions. Thus for example, for economy and regions, the inflation of the last twelve months in Argentina amounted to 14.4%. Argentine industrialists intend to a higher nominal depreciation as compensation for this loss of competitiveness permanent product of high inflation. According to Miguel Angel Broda expressed to Infobae, it would be appropriate that BCRA will continue with the gradual devaluation of the Exchange rate: so get to December of 2009 with a value $ 4.3 $4.5. However, is the most probable that the Central try to keep real parity at their current levels, which would be a nominal against the dollar of around $4 Exchange rate at the end of December 2009?. I sincerely believe that, despite the wishes of employers and the recommendation of Broda, bring the exchange rate to $4.5, it is highly risky. On the other hand, the debate on industrial policy in Argentina run largely by the level of the exchange rate is a reflection of the lack of a clear long-term project to strengthen to industria argentina. Argentine industrialists must understand that it is no use require a certain exchange rate level, but it is more valuable to seek stability and predictability in the economy in order to think in a long-term industrial development project. Should Argentine industrialists fear you Brazilians? Probably as soon as recompose the overall economic situation, if. But this fear is supported in internal competitiveness problems of the Argentine economy, explained by problems of investment, productivity and instability in the internal economic and institutional context. The exchange rate issue matter but should not be the center of the debate.
